ارزیابی ریسک پروژه های سدسازی با استفاده از روش پرومته و آنالیز گایا

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری مهندسی عمران ، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران

2 استاد گروه مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران

3 گروه مهندسی صنایع، دانشکده مهندسی، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران

10.22065/jsce.2022.299099.2526

چکیده

پروژه های سدسازی،‌ به علت استراتژیک بودن تأمین آب، پروژه های بسیار مهم و درعین‌حال پرهزینه‌ می‌باشند. ریسک های مختلف مرتبط با پروژه از عوامل مهم تاثیر گذار بر اقتصادی بودن پروژه‌های عمرانی می‌باشد. پروژه‌های سدسازی بدلیل نیاز به صرف زمان و هزینه‌ زیاد و نیز کیفیت مناسب و بعضا شرایط مکانی پیچیده محل اجرا، دارای سطح ریسک بالایی در بین پروژه‌های عمرانی می‌باشند. این تحقیق به شناسایی و تعیین اهمیت ریسک‌ها و رتبه‌بندی آن‌ها در پروژه‌های سدسازی، با استفاده از روش تصمیم گیری چند معیاره پرومته و آنالیز گایا می‌پردازد. برای ارزیابی ریسک پروژه‌ها لازم است ابتدا انواع ریسک ها در پروژه‌ها مشخص می شوند. ریسک ها با استفاده از داده های پژوهش های پیشین و همچنین مصاحبه با کارشناسان حوزه سدسازی استخراج شده است. انتخاب نهایی ریسک ها به وسیله غربال گری از طریق روش دلفی فازی انجام شده است. سپس با روش پرومته و آنالیز گایا، رتبه ریسک ها تعیین و تأثیر آن‌ها بر پروژه‌ تعیین ‌می شود. نتایج تحقیق نشان داد ریسک های تغییر نرخ ارز، تحریم، شرایط ژئوتکنیکی، روگذری و شکست سد، دارای بیشترین اهمیت در پروژه های سدسازی هستند. همچنین نتایج بیانگر این بود که استفاده از روش پرومته و آنالیز گایا می تواند با دقت به رتبه بندی ریسک پروژه‌های سدسازی و سایر پروژه های عمرانی پرداخت.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Risk evaluation of dam construction projects using PROMETHEE method and GAIA analysis

نویسندگان [English]

  • Farzad Fadaie 1
  • Mehdi Azhdary Moghaddam 2
  • Mohammad Reza Shahraki 3
1 PhD student, Department of Civil engineering, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran
2 Assistant professor, Department of civil engineering, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran
3 Department of Industrial Engineering, Engineering Faculty, University of Sistan and Baluchestan,Zahedan, Iran
چکیده [English]

Due to the strategic nature of water supply, dam construction projects are very important and at the same time costly projects. Various project-related risks are important factors affecting the economic viability of construction projects. Dam construction projects have a high risk among construction projects due to the need to spend a lot of time and money, as well as the appropriate quality and sometimes complex spatial conditions of the construction site. This research identifies and determines the importance of risks and their ranking in dam construction projects, using PROMETHEE multi-criteria decision-making method and GAIA analysis. To evaluate project risk, firstly, it is necessary to identify the types of risks in projects. Risks have been extracted using data from earlier researches as well as interviews with experts in the field of dam construction. The final selection of risks has been done by screening through fuzzy Delphi method. Then the ranking of risks and their impact on the project is determined using the PROMETHEE method and GAIA analysis. The results represented that exchange rate change, sanctions, geotechnical conditions, overpass and dam failure are the most important risks in dam construction projects. The results also indicated that the use of the PROMETHEE method and GAIA analysis can accurately rank the risk of dam projects and other construction projects.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Dam Construction
  • Evaluation
  • Risk
  • PROMETHEE
  • GAIA Analysis
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