ارزیابی ریسک پروژه های سدسازی با استفاده از روش پرومته و آنالیز گایا

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری مهندسی عمران ، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران

2 استاد گروه مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران

3 گروه مهندسی صنایع، دانشکده مهندسی، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران

چکیده

پروژه های سدسازی،‌ به علت استراتژیک بودن تأمین آب، پروژه های بسیار مهم و درعین‌حال پرهزینه‌ می‌باشند. ریسک های مختلف مرتبط با پروژه از عوامل مهم تاثیر گذار بر اقتصادی بودن پروژه‌های عمرانی می‌باشد. پروژه‌های سدسازی بدلیل نیاز به صرف زمان و هزینه‌ زیاد و نیز کیفیت مناسب و بعضا شرایط مکانی پیچیده محل اجرا، دارای سطح ریسک بالایی در بین پروژه‌های عمرانی می‌باشند. این تحقیق به شناسایی و تعیین اهمیت ریسک‌ها و رتبه‌بندی آن‌ها در پروژه‌های سدسازی، با استفاده از روش تصمیم گیری چند معیاره پرومته و آنالیز گایا می‌پردازد. برای ارزیابی ریسک پروژه‌ها لازم است ابتدا انواع ریسک ها در پروژه‌ها مشخص می شوند. ریسک ها با استفاده از داده های پژوهش های پیشین و همچنین مصاحبه با کارشناسان حوزه سدسازی استخراج شده است. انتخاب نهایی ریسک ها به وسیله غربال گری از طریق روش دلفی فازی انجام شده است. سپس با روش پرومته و آنالیز گایا، رتبه ریسک ها تعیین و تأثیر آن‌ها بر پروژه‌ تعیین ‌می شود. نتایج تحقیق نشان داد ریسک های تغییر نرخ ارز، تحریم، شرایط ژئوتکنیکی، روگذری و شکست سد، دارای بیشترین اهمیت در پروژه های سدسازی هستند. همچنین نتایج بیانگر این بود که استفاده از روش پرومته و آنالیز گایا می تواند با دقت به رتبه بندی ریسک پروژه‌های سدسازی و سایر پروژه های عمرانی پرداخت.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Risk evaluation of dam construction projects using PROMETHEE method and GAIA analysis

نویسندگان [English]

  • Farzad Fadaie 1
  • Mehdi Azhdary Moghaddam 2
  • Mohammad Reza Shahraki 3
1 PhD student, Department of Civil engineering, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran
2 Assistant professor, Department of civil engineering, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran
3 Department of Industrial Engineering, Engineering Faculty, University of Sistan and Baluchestan,Zahedan, Iran
چکیده [English]

Due to the strategic nature of water supply, dam construction projects are very important and at the same time costly projects. Various project-related risks are important factors affecting the economic viability of construction projects. Dam construction projects have a high risk among construction projects due to the need to spend a lot of time and money, as well as the appropriate quality and sometimes complex spatial conditions of the construction site. This research identifies and determines the importance of risks and their ranking in dam construction projects, using PROMETHEE multi-criteria decision-making method and GAIA analysis. To evaluate project risk, firstly, it is necessary to identify the types of risks in projects. Risks have been extracted using data from earlier researches as well as interviews with experts in the field of dam construction. The final selection of risks has been done by screening through fuzzy Delphi method. Then the ranking of risks and their impact on the project is determined using the PROMETHEE method and GAIA analysis. The results represented that exchange rate change, sanctions, geotechnical conditions, overpass and dam failure are the most important risks in dam construction projects. The results also indicated that the use of the PROMETHEE method and GAIA analysis can accurately rank the risk of dam projects and other construction projects.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Dam Construction
  • Evaluation
  • Risk
  • PROMETHEE
  • GAIA Analysis
  • Loubergé, H. and Outreville, J.F., (1989). Experimental Investigations on Risk-taking in the Domain of Losses. Université de Genève Faculté des sciences économiques et sociales.
  • Oskoonezhad, M.M, (2009). Engineering Economic. Tehran, Amirkabir University of Technology
  • Li, Z., Wang, T., Ge, W., Wei, D. and Li, H., (2019). Risk analysis of earth-rock dam breach based on dynamic Bayesian networkWater11(11), p.2305.
  • Daud, N.M., Hassan, S.H., Akbar, N.A., Bakar, A.A.A., Mohamad, N.A.S., Abd Manan, E. and Hamzah, A.F., (2021). Dam failure risk factor analysis using AHP method. In IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science (Vol. 646, No. 1, p. 012042). IOP Publishing.
  • Abdolshah, M., Moghimi, M. and Khatibi, S.A.M., (2020). Identifying and prioritizing risk management indicators in dam-building projects using combination of AHP-ARAS in fuzzy environment based on PMBOK (Case study: dam-building projects)Environmental Management Hazards7(2), pp.129-150.
  • Mahmoudian, M., Malekmohammadi, B., Banihashemi, M.A., (2017). Dam safety risk assessment (case study: flood risk for golestan dam).Escuder-Bueno, I., Matheu, E., T. Castillo-Rodríguez, J. and T. Castillo-Rodríguez, J. eds., 2019. Risk analysis, dam safety, dam security and critical infrastructure management. CRC Press.
  • Etminan Moghaddam, F. (2005). Analytical study of identifying common risks in construction projects. In: 02nd International Project Management Conference. City: Tehran.
  • Baloi, D., Price, A.D. (2003). Modelling global risk factors affecting construction cost performance, International Journal of Project Management, 21 (3).
  • Reich, B.H. and Wee, S.Y., (2006). Searching for Knowledge in the PMBOK® Guide. Project Management Journal, 37(2), pp.11-26.
  • Rajabi, M., Noori, M., Ashrafi, M., Dibaie, M. (2007). Hierarchical analysis of the factors affecting the success of the dam project. In: 4th International Project Management Conference. City: Tehran.
  • Shamsaie, M., RazmAra, A. (2009). Risk reduction of dam projects using a combination of risk management thinking and value engineering. In: The second national conference on dam construction. City: Zanjan.
  • Fadaie, F., Azhdari Moghaddam, M., Shahraki, M.R., (2020). Risk assessment of dam construction projects using Delphi method and multi-criteria decision making techniques (TOPSIS) and Shannon entropy models. Journal of critical reviews, 7(1).
  • ChiniChiyan, F. (2007). Fuzzy ranking in risk management. In: 4th International Project Management Conference. City: Tehran.
  • Dorri, B. and Hamzehi, E., (2010). Determining the best responding strategy to project risk using ANP technique (Case study: North Azadegan oil field development project). Industrial Management Journal.
  • Zare, A., AhmadiAsef, M. (2008). Evaluation of practical projects using fuzzy AHP. In: 16th Iranian Conference on Electric Engineering. City: Tehran.
  • Najafi, A., Karimpoor, M. (2009). Optimization in production sectors using an appropriate model to predict the risk of implementation of production projects. In: 2nd Conference in the Manufacturing Engineering. City: Najafabad.
  • Baradaran kazemzade, R. and Sharif mousavi, S.M., (2011). Developing a fuzzy risk assessment model to assess the schedule risks in construction projects (case: track renewal project in Iran railway administration).
  • Farifteh Jahantigh, M. (2011). Feasibility study of constructing an underground dam in Kahir-Chabahar region. Master Thesis in Geology. Islamic Azad University of Zahedan.
  • Linkov, I., Kiker, G., Batchelor, C., Bridges, T., Ferguson, E., Satterstrom F.K. (2006). From comparative risk assessment to multi-criteria decision analysis and adaptive management: Recent developments and apply, Environment International, 32 (8).
  • Taroun, A., Yang, J.B., Lowe, D. (2011). Construction Risk Modelling and Assessment: Insights from a Literature Review, The Built & Human Environment Review, 4(1).
  • Shahraki, M.R. and Mesri, J., )2020(. Risk Assessment and Prioritization of Construction Projects with a Mixed-Dimensional Approach and Network Analysis Process (Case Study: Sistan-Hamoun Plain 2 Water Supply Project).Journal of Structural and Construction Engineering.
  • Ghandi, M. and Roozbahani, A., )2020(. Risk management of drinking water supply in critical conditions using fuzzy PROMETHEE V technique. Water Resources Management, 34(2), pp.595-615.
  • Lee, J.Y., Yoon, Y.S., Jang, M.H. and Suh, S.W., )2010(. Analysis of the schedule risk using PROMETHEE in building construction management. Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 11(2), pp.25-34.
  • Ikwan, F.C., Sanders, D. and Haddad, M., )2020(. A Combined AHP-PROMETHEE Approach for Intelligent Risk Prediction of Leak in a Storage Tank. International Journal of Reliability, Risk & Safety.
  • Moradpour, S., Ebrahimnejad, S., Mehdizadeh, E. and Mohamadi, A., )2011(. Using hybrid fuzzy PROMETHEE II and fuzzy binary goal programming for risk ranking: A case study of highway construction projects. Journal of Optimization in Industrial Engineering, (9), pp.47-55.
  • Vetschera, R. and De Almeida, A.T., )2012(. A PROMETHEE-based approach to portfolio selection problems. Computers & Operations Research, 39(5), pp.1010-1020.
  • Adli J, Omidvari M., (2020). Assessing the risk of crisis in gas distribution networks using the FAHP-PROMETHEE II method (Case study of Qazvin Province Gas Company). Ioh, 17 (1):1-14.
  • Rahmati, M., Ashrafi, B., Hojatpanah, S. (2021). Identification and risk management of dam construction projects based on PMBOK standard (Case study: Bijar city dam project). In: 7th.International Congress on Civil Engineering, Architecture and Urban Development, Tehran, Iran.
  • Malmasi, S., Arjmandi, R., Nezakati, R., Allahdad, Z. (2016). Environmental risk assessment of dam projects by using ELECTRE technique. Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 18(4), 57-72.‏
  • Bid, S., Siddique, G. (2019). Human risk assessment of Panchet dam in India using TOPSIS and WASPAS multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods. Heliyon, 5(6), e01956.‏
  • Haghshenas, S. S., Neshaei, M. A. L., Pourkazem, P., Haghshenas, S. S. (2016). The risk assessment of dam construction projects using fuzzy TOPSIS (case study: Alavian Earth Dam). Civil Engineering Journal, 2(4), 158-167.‏
  • Momeni, M., Jafarnejad, A. and Sadeghi, S., (2011). Optimizing distribution centers location in marketing process through mathematical approach.
  • Cameron, Adrian; Trivedi, Pravin K. (2005). Microeconometrics: methods and applications. Cambridge New York, Cambridge University Press. ISBN9780521848053.
  • Olson, D. L. (1996). Decision Aids for Selection Problems Springer.
  • Ghasemi, P., & Komijan, A. R. (2015). Decision making using PROMETHEE method with learning Visual PROMETHEE software (Persian). Tehran: Azad Islamic University.
  • Zhao, X., Qi, Q., & L, R. (2010). The establishment and application of fuzzy comprehensive model with weight based on entropy technology for air quality assessment. Symposium on Security Detection and Information Processing 217-222.
  • Behzadian, M., Kazemzadeh, R. B., Albadvi, A., & Aghdasi, M. (2010). PROMETHEE: A comprehensive literature review on methodologies and applications. European Journal of Operational Research, 198-215.
  • Pedrycz, W., Ekel, P., & Parreiras, R. (2011). Fuzzy multi criteria decision-making, models, methods, and applications: A John Wiley and Sons, Ltd.
  • Ishizaka, A., & Nemery, P. (2011). Selecting the best statistical distribution with PROMETHEE and GAIA. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 958-969.
  • Kabir, G., & Sumi, R. S. (2014). Power substation location selection using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and PROMETHEE: A case study from Bangladesh. Energy, 1-14.