ارزیابی مکانیزم‌های حمایت‌ دولت از بخش خصوصی در مواجهه با ریسک درآمد در پروژه‌های راه مشارکت عمومی-خصوصی

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه مدیریت پروژه و ساخت، دانشکده معماری دانشگاه تهران، ایران

2 استاد، گروه مدیریت پروژه و ساخت، دانشکده معماری دانشگاه تهران، ایران

10.22065/jsce.2020.204733.1970

چکیده

ریسک درآمد پروژه‌های مشارکت عمومی-خصوصی آزادراهی، پدیده‌ای بحرانی و نیازمند توجه است. دولت‌ها با هدف انگیزش بخش خصوصی به مشارکت و تداوم توسعة زیرساخت‌ها، با اعطای مکانیزم‌های حمایتی، از بخش خصوصی در مواجهه با این ریسک پشتیبانی می‌کنند. ارزیابی این مکانیزم‌ها پیش از اعطا ضروری است. هدف این پژوهش، ارزیابی مکانیزم‌های حمایتی تعریف ‌شده‌ در قوانین آزادراه‌های مشارکتی کشورمان، با الگوی اختیارات واقعی است. در این پژوهش، مدلسازی جریان درآمدزایی احتمالی پروژه‌ها طی بهره‌برداری، طبق مبانی تئوری اختیارات انجام شد. سپس با شبیه‌سازی مونت‌کارلو، تأثیر پیامدهای ریسک درآمد بر دولت و شرکت پروژه با وجود هر یک از مکانیزم‌های حمایتیِ الف) «مدّت-منعطف»، ب) «مدّت-منعطف در ترکیب با گارانتی درآمد طبق قانون» و پ) «مدّت-منعطف در ترکیب با گارانتی درآمد پیشنهادی طبق اختیارات بامانع»، ارزیابی گردید. در این پژوهش برای نخستین بار، حساسیت این پیامدها، نسبت به خطاهای پیش‌بینی اولیة درآمدها تحلیل شده‌است. وجه‌تمایزهای دیگر این پژوهش، ارزیابی مکانیزم‌های حمایتی «ترکیبی» با اختیارات واقعی و استفاده از اختیارات «بامانع» در مدلسازی گارانتی درآمد است. فرایند فوق در یک آزادراه واقعی مشارکت عمومی-خصوصی پیاده‌سازی شده‌است.‌ گرچه مکانیزم حمایتی «مدّت-منعطف»، با تغییر مدّت امتیاز بهره‌برداری تا بازگشت سرمایه و سود بخش خصوصی، ریسک سودآوری پروژه را پوشش می‌دهد؛ مطابق یافته‌ها ترکیب آن با «گارانتی درآمد»، دوام مالی پروژه، به معنای استمرار جریانات نقدی سالانه کافی برای انجام هزینه‌ها و بازپرداخت بدهی‌های پروژه را، بهبود می‌بخشد. با تعدیل «گارانتی درآمد مبتنی بر قانون» با کمک «اختیارات بامانع»، در تعهدات نقدی دولت صرفه‌جویی خواهدشد و به این ترتیب، وقتی دولت چالش‌هایی در بودجة حمایت از پروژه‌ها داشته‌باشد، حمایت‌های ضروری می‌توانند به پروژه‌های دارای مشکلات جدی‌تر در دوام مالی، هدایت شوند. خطاهای پیش‌بینی درآمدها، تأثیر شدیدی بر پیامدهای ریسک درآمد بر دولت و شرکت پروژه خواهندداشت. از تحلیل حساسیت پیامدهای ریسک درآمد نسبت به خطاهای برآورد درآمدها، طیف گسترده‌تر و واقع‌بینانه‌تری از این پیامدها فراهم می‌شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluating Public Sector’s Support Mechanisms for Project Companies Facing Revenue Risk of PPP Projects

نویسندگان [English]

  • Aida Rahimi Golkhandan 1
  • Mahmoud Golabchi 2
1 Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Project and Construction Management, School of Architecture, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
2 Professor, Department of Project and Construction Management, School of Architecture, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

In PPP toll road projects, public sector supports project companies that face the risk of revenue, by different mechanisms. It is necessary for the public sector to evaluate these mechanisms before granting them to the private sector. This study evaluates the support mechanisms defined in the Iranian PPP toll road projects legislations by real options and compares them with a proposed mechanism. Additionally, the uncertainty of the project revenue during the concession is modeled by the options theory. The impacts of the revenue risk on public and private sectors is evaluated by Monte Carlo simulation in a Flexible-term mechanism, a Flexible-term mechanism alongside a Revenue Guarantee mechanism defined in the legislations, and a Flexible-term mechanism alongside a proposed Guarantee based on Barrier Option. Subsequently, the sensitivity of these impacts to the revenue projection errors is analysed. This process is implemented in a real PPP freeway project. The results show that the combining Flexible-term and Revenue Guarantee mechanisms improve the financial viability of the project, indicating the continuance of adequate yearly cash flows through the whole concession period. Adjusting the Revenue Guarantee defined in legislations by Barrier options reduces the public sector’s payment commitments. The analysis of the uncertainties of the project revenues reveals that the revenue projection errors have a great impact on the consequences of the revenue risk on both parties. Since the public sector often faces budgeting challenges to support projects, the proposed mechanism can help public sector decision-makers to better allocate financial resources by supporting the projects that struggle with financial viability. The sensitivity analysis of revenue projection errors on risk impacts in each mechanism provides public sector decision-makers with a broader and more realistic spectrum of the revenue risk impacts on pubic and private parties.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Freeway projects
  • Public-Private-Partnership
  • Revenue Risk
  • Project Financial Viability
  • Real Options
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