نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
The construction industry faces the chronic challenge of project delays, and traditional methods cannot model the complex and nonlinear interactions of factors affecting delays, while machine learning as a data-driven approach can extract hidden patterns from historical data. This study aims to develop a machine learning model for predicting the continuous amount of delay (in days) in Iranian construction projects and identifying the most influential factors; the methodology includes collecting real data from 101 completed projects, implementing seven base algorithms and two ensemble methods, and evaluating performance using MAE, RMSE, and R² metrics. The findings indicate that the Support Vector Regression with linear kernel (SVR) was selected as the final model with an R² of 0.778 and a Mean Absolute Error of 10.4 days. The five variables "material/equipment supply delay", "decision-making speed", "project manager experience", "design revisions", and "payment delay" account for over 73% of the total importance. Three managerial variables comprise more than 42% of the importance, demonstrating that managerial actions have a greater impact on delays than purely technical factors. The proposed model can predict delays of new projects with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error of 12.8%. The final conclusion is that the SVR model, while maintaining simplicity and generalizability, provides practitioners with a practical tool for estimating future delay amounts and focusing on the most effective managerial factors; this data-driven approach can serve as a foundation for developing real-time prediction systems and improving financial discipline in construction projects.
کلیدواژهها English