مهندسی سازه و ساخت

مهندسی سازه و ساخت

بکارگیری مدیریت دانش پروژه جهت بهره وری زمان و هزینه مخازن ذخیره آب با رویکرد طبقه‌ بندی

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی مدیریت ساخت ، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تبریز، ایران
2 استادیار، دانشکده فنی و مهندسی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تبریز، ایران
3 استادیار گروه مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران
چکیده
پیش‌بینی زمان و هزینه پروژه قبل از هرگونه فعالیت عملیاتی و مسائل مالی، برای مدیران پروژه و برنامه‌ریزان بسیار حائز اهمیت است و به عنوان بعد حیاتی تصمیم‌گیری در روند فعالیت‌های یک پروژه عمل می‌کند. در نتیجه، سطح بالای ریسک و عدم اطمینان در مورد برآورد‌های اولیه، می‌تواند باعث ضعف ارزش برآورد‌ها در طول مراحل پروژه شود. این موضوع ممکن است باعث عدم هماهنگی هزینه و زمان اجرای فعالیت‌ها شود. اکثر مطالعات قبلی روش‌های مختلفی را برای جلوگیری از رویدادهای محتمل (ریسک) و کاهش تأثیر آن‌ها بر هدف‌های پروژه، مورد بررسی قرار داده‌اند. همچنین، از ابزار و تکنیک‌های مختلفی نیز برای مدیریت ریسک در پروژه استفاده شده است. این تحقیق پیشنهادی برای بهبود قابلیت عدم اطمینان در برآورد اولیه هزینه و زمان پروژه‌ها با تأثیر رویدادهای محتمل در طول زمان اجرای آن‌ها، از طریق یکپارچه‌سازی رویدادهای محتمل با استفاده از مفهوم و ایده طبقه‌بندی است. در این تحقیق، برآورد اولیه هزینه و زمان برای پروژه ساخت مخزن SE4 با حجم ۱۰۰۰۰ مترمکعب در تبریز مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. برآورد اولیه براساس یک قرارداد پروژه عمرانی سه عاملی و با توجه به لیست قیمت پایه و دایره نامه شماره ۴۳۱۱ (شرایط عمومی قرارداد) انجام شد و مبلغ ۳۷،۱۵۲،۱۹۰،۳۹۵ ریال و مدت زمان ۷۳۰ روز برای این پروژه پیش‌بینی شد. با استفاده از روش تحقیق، تخمین زمان پایان پروژه به ۹۷۸ روز و هزینه پایانی پروژه به ۵۴،۰۰۱،۹۵۹،۷۴۸ ریال تغییر کرد. این تفاوت نشان می‌دهد که رویدادهای محتملی که در طول زمان اجرای پروژه ممکن است رخ دهند، بر تخمین هزینه و زمان پروژه تأثیر دارند. بنابراین، با شناسایی رویدادهای محتمل و محاسبه تأثیر آن‌ها بر زمان و هزینه پایان پروژه با استفاده از رویکرد طبقه‌بندی، می‌توان بهبود قابل توجهی در دقت برآورد هزینه و زمان پروژه داشت.
کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله English

Applying project knowledge management with a classification approach to enhance time and cost efficiency in water reservoir projects.

نویسندگان English

Salar Jafari 1
Sina Fard Moradinia 2
Ebrahim Salami 3
1 Master's degree in Construction Management Engineering, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Technical and Engineering Faculty, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, Iran
3 Assistant Professor, Civil Engineering Dep, Payam e Noor University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده English

Predicting project time and cost prior to any operational activities and financial issues is crucial for project managers and planners. It plays a vital role in decision-making throughout the project. Therefore, a high level of risk and uncertainty in initial estimates can undermine the value of estimates during the project's stages, leading to a mismatch between the cost and time of project activities. Previous studies have investigated various methods to mitigate potential events (risks) and minimize their impact on project objectives. Various tools and techniques have also been employed to manage risks in projects. This proposed research aims to enhance the predictability of initial cost and time estimates for projects by considering the influence of potential events over time through the integration of probable events using the concept and idea of classification. The study focuses on examining the initial cost and time estimate for the construction project of the SE4 reservoir with a volume of 10,000 cubic meters in Tabriz. The initial estimate was conducted based on a three-factor civil project contract, taking into account the base price list and circular No. 4311 (General Contractual Conditions). The projected amount for the project was estimated to be 37,152,190,395 Iranian rials, with a duration of 730 days. Using the research method, the estimated project completion time was adjusted to 978 days, and the final project cost was predicted to be 54,001,959,748 Iranian rials. This difference indicates that probable events that may occur during the project execution have an impact on the cost and time estimates of the project. Therefore, by identifying probable events and assessing their impact on the project's time and cost using a classification approach, a significant improvement in the accuracy of cost and time estimates can be achieved.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Time
Cost
Classification
Risk
General conditions of the contract
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  • تاریخ دریافت 23 خرداد 1402
  • تاریخ بازنگری 18 مهر 1402
  • تاریخ پذیرش 20 فروردین 1403