توسعه مدل انفیس برای تحلیل و مدیریت ریسک منابع انسانی در پروژه‎های عمرانی

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری مهندسی و مدیریت ساخت، گروه مهندسی عمران، واحد تبریز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تبریز، ایران

2 استادیار، گروه مهندسی عمران ، واحد تبریز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تبریز، ایران

چکیده

نقش منابع انسانی در کاهش ریسک‎های منابع انسانی و به تبع آن ریسک‎های سازمانی و سودآوری سازمان، نقشی غیر قابل انکار و بسیار مهم است و نقش منابع انسانی چیزی فراتر از نقش های اداری و دفتری می‎باشد که متأسفانه این دیدگاه راجع به نقش مدیریت منابع انسانی در اکثر سازمان‎های پروژه محور وجود دارد و تاکنون ریسک اقدامات استراتژیک منابع انسانی، به خصوص در پروژه های صنعت ساخت کشور به صورت نظام مند ارزیابی نشده است. تحقیق حاضر با هدف شناسایی ریسک‎های موثر بر مدیریت منابع انسانی در پروژه‌های عمرانی و ارائه الگویی یکپارچه مبتنی بر سیستم استنتاج فازی- شبکه عصبی تطبیقی (ANFIS) جهت ارزیابی ریسک‎ها به نگارش درآمده است. با تعیین میزان احتمال، شدت اثر و نرخ وقوع ریسک‌ها، در مجموع 9 عامل ریسک شامل (1) کمبود و فقدان بلوغ و دانش کارکنان متخصص، (2) تنش‌های شغلی، (3) بی‌انگیزگی کارکنان، (4) عدم توجه به فرآیند مدیریت عملکرد و ارائه بازخورد، (5) کمبود منابع مالی برای تخصیص پاداش به فعالیت‌های نوآورانه، (6) اتخاذ سیاست‌های پرداخت نامناسب، (7) عملکرد تبعیض‌آمیز بین منابع انسانی، (8) عدم برخورداری از دانش و مهارت‌های فنی و (9) عدم برخورداری از مهارت اعتمادسازی بین کارکنان به‌عنوان ریسک‌های بحرانی (غیرمجاز) شناسایی شد. نتایج معیارهای ضریب همبستگی جهت تعیین مقدار خطای دو روش ارائه شده نشان داد که داده‌های تصادفی نسبت به داده‌های واقعی خبرگان، ضریب همبستگی بیشتری داشته و نتایج حاصل از آنها با دقت بالایی رضایت‌بخش است. همچنین تحلیل کیفی و کمی ریسک‌ها با روش انفیس و براساس نظرات خبرگان و داده‌های تصادفی نشان داد که اگر ریسک‌ها در پروژه‌هایی که برای اولین بار اجرا می‌شوند یا دسترسی به خبرگان به تعداد مورد نیاز موجود نباشد، با اتخاذ و انتخاب داده‌های ورودی تصادفی مناسب از بین بازه‌های فازی به جای نظر خبرگان و تحلیل آنها با روش انفیس، نتایج قابل قبولی حاصل می‌گردد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Development an ANFIS model for human resource risk analysis and management in construction projects

نویسندگان [English]

  • Morteza Gholizadeh 1
  • Sina Fard Moradinia 2
1 Ph.D. Candidate of Engineering and Construction Management, Department of Civil Engineering, Tabriz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, Iran
2 Assistant professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Tabriz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, Iran
چکیده [English]

The role of human resources in reducing human resource risks and, consequently, organizational risks and organizational profitability, is an undeniable and very important role, and the role of human resources is something beyond administrative and office roles, which unfortunately this view There is a role for human resource management in most project-oriented organizations and so far the risk of strategic human resource actions, especially in the country's manufacturing industry projects has not been systematically assessed.The present paper aimed to identify the risks affecting human resource management in construction projects and provide an integrated model based on Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) for risk assessment. By determining the probability, severity and rate of occurrence of risks, a total of 9 risk factors including (1) lack of maturity and knowledge of specialized staff, (2) job stress, (3) employee motivation, (4) lack of attention to the management process Performance and feedback, (5) lack of financial resources to reward innovative activities, (6) inappropriate payment policies, (7) discriminatory performance between human resources, (8) lack of technical knowledge and skills, and (9) lack of Possession of trust-building skills among employees was identified as critical (unauthorized) risks. The results of correlation coefficient criteria to determine the error value of the two methods presented showed that random data had a higher correlation coefficient than the actual data of experts and the results were satisfactory with high accuracy. Also, qualitative and quantitative analysis of risks by ANFIS method and based on experts' opinions and random data showed that if the risks are not available in projects that are being implemented for the first time or access to the required number of experts, by adopting and selecting appropriate random input data. Fuzzy intervals, instead of experts' opinions and their analysis by ANFIS method, obtain acceptable results.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Risk analysis
  • Human resource risks
  • Construction projects
  • ANFIS
  • MATLAB
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