استفاده مستقیم از نتایج شبیه سازی زلزله در تحلیل خطر احتمالاتی وابسته به زمان مطالعه موردی تهران

نوع مقاله: علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی زلزله، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه تهران

2 استادیار، پژوهشگاه بین المللی زلزله شناسی و مهندسی زلزله

3 دانشیار، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

در تحلیل خطر مرسوم برای برآورد عدم قطعیت موجود در حرکت زلزله به طور متداول از روابط کاهندگی استفاده می شود. این روابط کاهندگی معمولا با استفاده از شتابنگاشتهای زلزله هایی که در گذشته واقع شده  و ثبت گردیده اند، به دست می آیند. از آنجا که در مناطق نزدیک به گسل تاریخچه ثبت رکورد زلزله در سراسر دنیا بسیار اندک است، نقص عمده ی اکثر روابط کاهندگی، عدم کارآیی مناسب آن ها در حوزه نزدیک گسل می باشد. در این مطالعه برای پرهیز از کاستی  های روابط کاهندگی مرسوم در حوزه نزدیک، نتایج شبیه سازی صورت گرفته در مطالعات گذشته (]1[و]2[) بدون تبدیل آن ها به رابطه کاهندگی، به طور مستقیم در برآورد تحلیل خطر احتمالاتی تابع زمان (غیرپواسونی) گسل شمال استفاده شده است. گسل شمال تهران از شمال شهر تهران عبور می کند که در صورت گسیختگی محتمل، قطعا اثرات حوزه نزدیک در شهر تهران دیده خواهد شد. این مساله ضروت توجه ویژه به حرکات حوزه نزدیک در برآورد خطر احتمالی ناشی از فعالیت این گسل را نشان می دهد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Time-Dependent Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Using the Simulated Records, the Case of Tehran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Babak Hajimohammadi 1
  • Hamid Zafarani 2
  • Abbas Ghalandarzadeh 3
1 MSc Student in Earthquake Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Tehran
2 Assistant Professor, International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES)
3 Associate Progessor, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Tehran
چکیده [English]

Common attenuation equations are developed by seismic records which belong to earthquakes that have happened so far. Although there are many recorded data during last 50 years, it is not possible to consider all possible wave propagation paths, site types and fault rupture mechanisms inclassical attenuation relations. This fact becomes more serious in near field cases and a common shortcoming in most attenuation equations is their low accuracyin estimation of near field parameters.Many important cities of the world such as Tehran are located nearby some active faults. For example, the North Tehran Fault is such a closeseismic source to Tehran Metropolitanarea andcould be considered asa near field source. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate near field effects in most of hazard analyses, risk management programs, structural designs, etc.In past, it was routine to use attenuation equations in hazard analyses. In this project for avoiding from insufficient performance of attenuation equations in near field, proposed simulation datum byZafarani, et al., (2012), were used directly in the hazard analysis without converting them into attenuation equations.Besides, time dependent hazard analysis (Non-PoissonianModel) was used to taking into account the probable seismic activity of the North Tehran Fault.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Simulations
  • Near-field
  • North Tehran Fault
  • Non-poissonian model
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