شناسایی و ارزیابی ریسکهای بحرانی در پروژه‌های HSR از طریق مشارکت عمومی - خصوصی در کشورهای در حال توسعه

نوع مقاله: علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری مهندسی و مدیریت ساخت، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه تهران

2 دانشیار، دانشکده عمران، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

مشارکت عمومی خصوصی در کشورهای توسعه یافته و در حال توسعه در سطح گسترده‌ای به منظور انجام پروژه‌های متعدد در بخشهای حمل و نقل، سلامت و نیروگاهها مورد استفاده قرارگرفته است. پروژه‌های راه آهن سریع السیر که با استفاده از مشارکت عمومی - خصوصی در سالهای اخیر اجرا شده با دشواریهایی روبرو گردیده است.هدف این مقاله توسعه روشی جهت شناسایی و ارزیابی ریسکهای بحرانی پروژه های راه آهن سریع السیر در ایران است. در این تحقیق ابتدا با مطالعه گسترده ادبیات فنی و تجربه پروژه‌های راه آهن سریع السیر در دنیا بروش مشارکت عمومی خصوصی ریسکهای این گونه پروژه‌ها بدست آمده است. سپس ریسکهای شناسایی شده بوسیله پرسش‌نامه و آنالیزهای آماری چند متغیره مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت. نتایج بررسیهای تحلیلی نشان می‌دهد که تعداد و میزان اهمیت ریسکهای بحرانی پروژه‌های مشارکت عمومی خصوصیحمل و نقل از پروژه‌های عمومی مشارکت عمومی خصوصی بیشتر بوده است. در این مطالعه علاوه بر تایید گروه‌های ریسک شناسایی شده شامل ریسکهای سیاسی و مالی در پروژه‌های مشارکت عمومی خصوصی دو گروه ریسکهای قراردادی و شروع پروژه در پروژه‌های راه آهن سریع السیر پیشنهاد گردید و دو گروه شامل ریسکهای بخش خصوصی و ریسکهای شرایط محیطی مختص کشورهای در حال توسعه شناسایی شد. بدلیل مطالعات ناکافی و عدم تجربه کشورهای در حال توسعه در رابطه با پروژه‌های بسیار بزرگ بخش حمل و نقل بروش مشارکت عمومی خصوصی، این تحقیق میتواند بعنوان یک مرجع در انجام پروژه‌های راه آهن سریع السیر مورد استفاده قرار گیرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Identification and Assessment of Critical Risks in High Speed Rail Projects Via Public Private Partnership in Developing Countries

نویسندگان [English]

  • Seyyed Reza Makkiabadi 1
  • Kambiz Behnia 2
  • Ali Akbari 1
1 PhD Condidate in Construction, Engineering and Management, Department Of Civil Engineering, University Of Tehran
2 Associate Professor, Department Of Civil Engineering, University Of Tehran
چکیده [English]

Public private partnership has been used extensively in both developing and developed countries in delivering various types of projects, ranging from transportation projects, health care facility and power plants. The high speed rail projects which implemented by public private partnership in recent years has faced with difficulties. This paper aims to develop an identification and assessment method for critical risks of public private partnershiphigh speed rail project in Iran. In this research at first, risks of public private partnershiphigh speed rail projects are identified by integration of extensive literature review and Public private partnership high speed rail project experience in Iran and other countries. In the next step, the identified risks are assessed by questionnaire survey and multivariate statistical analysis. Analytical investigations show that the number of critical risks in high speed rail projects and their mean importance is higher than that of general public private partnership projects. In this study in addition of confirming pre identified risk groups consisting political and financial groups, two major groups of initialisation and contractual risks specific to high speed rail projects are identified and two groups specific to developing countries named circumstances and private risks are proposed. Because of insufficient studies and lack of experience in developing countries about transportation mega projects via Public private partnership this study can be a helpful reference for public private partnership implementation of high speed rail mega projects in developing countries.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • High speed rail
  • Public private partnership
  • Risk identification and assessment
  • Developing countries
  • Factor analysis
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