انتخاب و رتبه بندی روابط کاهندگی برای منطقه تهران

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار،دانشکده فنی و مهندسی، دانشگاه صنعتی خاتم الانبیا(ص) بهبهان، بهبهان، ایران

2 - استادیار، دانشکده صنعت و معدن، دانشگاه یاسوج، چرام، ایران

3 کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی سازه، دانشکده فنی و مهندسی، دانشگاه صنعتی خاتم الانبیا بهبهان، بهبهان، ایران

4 دانشجوی پسا دکتری زلزله، دانشکده مهندسی، دانشگاه کردستان،سنندج، ایران

چکیده

انتقال موج زلزله از منبع تا ساختگاه توسط معادله پیش بینی حرکت زمین صورت می‌گیرد. با توجه به سهم بالای رابطه در تغییرپذیری حرکت زمین، انتخاب روابط مناسب منطقه از اهمیت ویژه‌ای برخوردار است. تعداد معادلات پیش‌بینی زیاد است اما برای بسیاری از مناطق رابطه خاصی وجود ندارد و لازم است معیاری برای تعیین رابطه داده شود. در این مقاله 62 رابطه مورد استفاده توسط تحلیل‌گران در ایران و منطقه تهران به سه معیار واگرایی رنی، فاصله اقلیدسی و روش درستنمایی و بر اساس مشابهت با داده های واقعی رخداد، رتبه بندی و مناسب‌ترین روابط برای تحلیل خطر تهران معرفی شده است. نتایج تحقیق نشان می‌دهد که رابطه زارع و سبزعلی (2006) در هر سه روش همخوانی بسیار خوبی با زلزله های رخ داده در منطقه تهران دارد. همچنین برخی از روابط جهانی همخوانی بهتری نسبت به روابط منطقه‌ای به دست آمده در تهران دارند. نتایج آنالیز حساسیت نشان می دهد که با استفاده از رتبه‌بندی میزان تاثیرپذیری روابط کاهندگی بر نتایج تحلیل خطر منطقه کاهش می‌یابد. همچنین نشان می‌دهد که تکیه بر نظر خبرگان تا حد بیش از %90 اطمینان در انتخاب روابط کاهندگی را به همراه دارد. این میزان دقت، در برخی موارد کافی به نظر می رسد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Selection and Ranking the Ground Motion Prediction Equations for Tehran Region

نویسندگان [English]

  • sasan motaghed 1
  • nasrolla Eftekhari 2
  • mozhgan khazaee 3
  • ehsan yousefi Dadras 4
1 Assistant Prof., Faculty of Engineering, Behbahan Khatam Alanbia University of Technology, Behbahan, Iran
2 Assistant Prof., Faculty of Technology and Mining, Yasouj University, Choram, Iran
3 M.Sc., Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Behbahan Khatam Alanbia University of Technology, Behbahan, Iran.
4 Postdoc student, Faculty of Engineering, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj,Iran
چکیده [English]

Earthquake wave transmission from the source to the site is modeled by the ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs or attenuation equations). Considering the high contribution of these equations in the variability of the ground motion in the site, the selection of the appropriate relations for the region is of particular importance. The number of prediction equations is large, but there is no specific relationship for many areas, so it is necessary to use criteria to determine the best equations for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis(PSHA). In this paper, 62 relationships used by analysts in Iran and Tehran region are introduced to the three criteria of Rennie divergence, Euclidean distance and likelihood method, are ranked based on similarity with actual occurrence data, and the most suitable relationships for Tehran are introduced. The results show that the relationship of Zare and Sabze Ali (2006) in all three methods has a very good match with the Tehran region earthquakes. Also, some global relations have a better match than the regional relations obtained in Tehran. The results of the sensitivity analysis show a decrease in the effectiveness of the regional PSHA using the ranking. It also shows that relying on the opinion of experts brings more than 90% confidence in the selection of GMPEs, which seems sufficient in some cases. .If this level of accuracy is not sufficient, it is necessary to use the appropriate weighted equations in the analysis based on the physics-based ranking results. Otherwise, the results of the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis will fluctuate and may not have the sufficient reliability.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA)
  • attenuation relationship
  • Rennie divergence
  • Euclidean distance
  • maximum likelihood
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