ارزیابی و اولویت بندی ریسک با استفاده از رویکرد ترکیبی نوین تصمیم گیری بر مبنای FMEA در محیط فازی (مطالعه موردی: پروژه کتابخانه مرکزی اراک)

الوند, ابولفضل; میرحسینی, سید محمد; احسانی فر, محمد; ضیغمی, احسان الله; محمدی, امیر

doi:10.22065/jsce.2021.221971.2092

ارزیابی و اولویت بندی ریسک با استفاده از رویکرد ترکیبی نوین تصمیم گیری بر مبنای FMEA در محیط فازی (مطالعه موردی: پروژه کتابخانه مرکزی اراک)

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

¹ دانشجوی دکتری مهندسی و مدیریت ساخت، گروه مهندسی عمران، دانشکده فنی و مهندسی، واحد اراک، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اراک، ایران

² گروه مهندسی عمران، واحد اراک، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اراک، ایران

³ استادیار، گروه مهندسی صنایع، واحد اراک، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اراک، ایران

⁴ استادیار، گروه مهندسی‌عمران، دانشکده فنی و مهندسی، واحد اراک، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اراک، ایران

10.22065/jsce.2021.221971.2092

چکیده

ارزیابی و اولویت‌بندی ریسک، از مهم‌ترین مولفه‌های مدیریت ریسک در هر سازمان است. تکنیک تحلیل حالات و آثار شکست‌ها (FMEA) یکی از متداول‌ترین تکنیک‌ها برای ارزیابی و اولویت‌بندی ریسک‌های متعدد می‌باشد. علیرغم کاربردهای گسترده این روش در زمینه‌های مختلف با برخی از کاستی‌ها همراه است که می‌تواند منجر به نتایج غیرواقعی شود. در مطالعه حاضر، به منظور برطرف نمودن کاستی‌های تکنیک متداول FMEA، یک رویکرد ترکیبی نوین تصمیم‌گیری در سه مرحله پیشنهاد شده است. در مرحله اول، براساس پیشینه پژوهش و گروهی از متخصصان، 23 ریسک مربوط به پروژه‌ عمرانی شناسایی و در 6 گروه شامل فنی، پویایی محیط پروژه، تعدد ذینفعان پروژه، کارفرما، مدیریت پروژه و پیمانکار دسته‌بندی شدند. سپس در مرحله دوم، از روش تحلیل نسبت ارزیابی وزن‌دهی تدریجی (SWARA) تحت محیط فازی برای ارزیابی وزن معیارهای تصمیم‌گیری استفاده شد. در نهایت، خروجی‌ فازهای قبلی به عنوان مبنایی برای اولویت‌بندی رویدادهای متعدد ریسک با استفاده از روش ارزیابی تولید وزنی تجمعی (WASPAS) تحت محیط فازی بکارگرفته شد. برای نشان دادن مزایای بالقوه و کاربرد رویکرد ترکیبی پیشنهادی در یک مطالعه موردی اجرا و پیاده‌سازی گردید. نتایج بدست آمده حاصل از رویکرد ترکیبی نوین تصمیم‌گیری بر مبنایFMEA نشان می‌دهد که عملکرد پائین نیروی انسانی، ارتباط و همکاری ضعیف پیمانکار با سایر گروه‌ها، عدم مدیریت مناسب توسط پیمانکار در رابطه با مسائل مالی، حمایت تامین‌کنندگان و زیرمجموعه‌های آن و عدم هماهنگی منابع انسانی مرتبط به عنوان مهم‌ترین ریسک‌ها در پروژه کتابخانه مرکزی هستند. هم‌چنین پس از انجام آزمون صحت‌سنجی و تحلیل حساسیت مشخص شد که روش پیشنهادی معتبر بوده و می‌تواند اطلاعات ارزشمند و موثری در کمک به مدیریت ریسک پروژه‌های عمرانی فراهم نماید.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

مدیریت پروژه و ساخت

عنوان مقاله [English]

Risk Assessment and Prioritization Using a New Hybrid Decision-Making Approach Based on FMEA in Fuzzy Environment (Case Study: Arak Central Library Project)

نویسندگان [English]

Abolfazl Alvand ¹
S.Mohammad Mirhosseini ²
Mohammad Ehsanifar ³
Ehsanollah Zeighami ⁴
Amir Mohammadi ⁴

¹ PHD student in engineering and construction management, Department of Civil Engineering, Arak Branch, Islamic Azad University, Arak, Iran

² Department of CivilEngineering, Arak Branch, Islamic Azad University, Arak,Iran

³ Assistant Professor, Arak Branch, Islamic Azad University, Arak, Iran

⁴ Assistant professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Arak Branch, Islamic Azad University, Arak, Iran

چکیده [English]

Risk assessment and prioritization is one of the most important components of risk management in any organization. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is one of the most commonly used methods for assessment and prioritization of the multiple risks. Despite the widespread applications of this method in various industries, FMEA is associated with some shortcomings that can lead to unrealistic results. In this study, a new hybrid decision- making approach is presented in three phases to cover some of the shortcomings of the FMEA technique. In the first phase, based on the subject literature and getting help from a group of experts, 23 risks related to the construction project were identified and classified into six groups including technical, dynamics of the project environment, multiplicity of project stakeholders, employer, project management, and contractor. In the second phase, the fuzzy Stepwise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (SWARA) is used to measure the weights of decision criteria. In the third phase, the outputs of the previous phases are used as a basis to prioritize the risks using the Weighted Aggregated Sum Product Assessment (WASPAS) methods under fuzzy environment. To illustrate the potential benefits and applications of the proposed hybrid approach in a case study was implemented. The results obtained from the new hybrid approach to show that the low performance of the human resources, communication and cooperation of a poor contractor with another group, lack of proper management by the contractor regarding financial matters, supplier support, and subcontractors, and low performance of the human resources as the most important risks were recognized in the construction project of the Central Library of Markazi Province. Also, after performing the validation test and sensitivity analysis, it was found that the proposed method can provide valuable and effective information in helping to manage the risk of construction projects.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Risk Assessment and Prioritization
Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA)
Stepwise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (SWARA) Method
Weighted Aggregated Sum Product Assessment (WASPAS) Method
Fuzzy Environment

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