مهندسی سازه و ساخت

مهندسی سازه و ساخت

شناسایی و رتبه‌بندی ریسک‌های ساخت تونل در پروژه‌های عمرانی (مطالعه موردی؛ تونل مترو مشهد - گلبهار)

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 استادیار، دانشکده عمران، موسسه آموزش عالی خاوران، مشهد، ایران
2 کارشناس ارشد، دانشکده عمران، موسسه آموزش عالی خاوران، مشهد، ایران
10.22065/jsce.2026.514526.3692
چکیده
ساخت تونل یکی از پیچیده‌ترین پروژه‌های عمرانی بوده و ریسک‌ها جزء جدایی‌ناپذیر اینگونه پروژه‌ها هستند. دستیابی به اهداف هر پروژه عمرانی با کمترین انحراف، مستلزم شناسایی درست ریسک‌های آن بوده که اکثراً بر روی اهداف پروژه تأثیرات منفی زیادی دارند ضمن اینکه شناسایی و الویت‌بندی ریسک‌ها یکی از مهم‌ترین گام‌های مدیریت ریسک می‌باشد. بنابراین هدف اصلی تحقیق حاضر شناسایی و رتبه‌بندی ریسک‌های ساخت تونل در پروژه‌های عمرانی با تأکید بر تونل مترو مشهد - گلبهار است. این تحقیق از حیث هدف، کاربردی و به لحاظ روش از نوع توصیفی - پیمایشی بود. جامعه‌ی آماری پژوهش حاضر خبرگان و صاحب‌نظران حوزه‌ی عمرانی و ساخت و ساز تونل (شامل مدیران، مهندسان، مشاوران و…) با فرض شروطی بوده که تعداد 12 نفر از آنها در بخش CVR و تعداد 15 نفر از آنها در بخش FCM به‌عنوان نمونه انتخاب گردیدند. برای تجزیه و تحلیل داده‌ها از روش نسبت روایی محتوایی (CVR) و تکنیک نقشه شناخت فازی (FCM) برای شناسایی و تعیین ساختار روابط بین ریسک‌ها و مشخص نمودن میزان اثرگذاری و اثرپذیری استفاده شده است. نتایج حاصل از این بررسی نشان داد که هفت عامل و 48 ریسک شامل عامل سرمایه‌گذاری، مالی و حقوقی با 7 ریسک؛ مدیریت فنی با 11 ریسک، عامل انسانی با 6 ریسک، مدیریت ایمنی با 8 ریسک، اکتشافات زمین‌شناسی با 6 ریسک، عامل مواد با 5 ریسک و عامل مدیریتی و سیاسی با 5 ریسک در ساخت و ساز و احداث تونل‌های مترو نقش دارند. در این میان عامل سرمایه‌گذاری، مالی و حقوقی با درجه برونداد 69/3، دارای بیشترین تاثیرگذاری در بین عوامل مورد مطالعه می‌باشد. نتایج ریسک‌های این عامل نشان داد که؛ ریسک‌های روش‌های خاص تأمین مالی پروژه (تهاتر با زمین و اوراق) با ضریب اثر 92/3 دارای بالاترین میزان اثرگذاری در بین ریسک‌های این عامل می‌باشند.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Identification and ranking of tunnel construction of civil project risk (case study Mashhad-Golbahar metro tunnel)

نویسندگان English

siamak golnargesi 1
mohammad bambaeichi 2
1 Assistant Professor, Faculty of civil engineering, khavaran institute of higher education, Mashhad, Iran
2 Master's degree, Faculty of civil engineering, khavaran institute of higher education, Mashhad, Iran
چکیده English

Tunnel construction is one of the most complex construction projects and risks are an inseparable part of such projects. Achieving the goals of any construction project with the least deviation requires the correct identification of its risks, which mostly have negative effects on the project's goals. Furthermore Identification and prioritization of risks is one of the most important steps in risk management. Therefore, the main goal of the current research is to identify and rank the risks of tunnel construction in construction projects. This research was applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-survey in terms of method. The statistical population of the current research is experts in the field of tunnel construction (including managers, specialists, engineers, consultants, etc.) assuming the conditions that 12 of them are in the CVR department and 15 of them are in the FCM department were chosen as a sample. To analyze the data, Content Validity Ratio (CVR) and Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) technique were used to identify and determine the structure of relationships between risks and determine the degree of effectiveness (Outdegree and Indegree). The results of study showed that seven factors and 48 risks including Investment, financial and legal factors with 7 risks; Technical management with 11 risks, Human factor with 6 risks, Safety management with 8 risks, Geological discoveries with 6 risks, Material factor with 5 risks and Managerial and political factors with 5 risks in the construction and construction of metro tunnels. The Investment, financial and legal factor with a 3.69 outdegree has the most impressive among the factors on the construction of the Mashhad-Golbahar tunnel project. Also the results of the risks of this factor showed that; The risks of specific project financing methods with an impact coefficient of 3.92 have the highest impact among the risks of this factor.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Risks
CVR
FCM
metro
tunnel construction
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  • تاریخ دریافت 13 اردیبهشت 1404
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