Journal of Structural and Construction Engineering

Journal of Structural and Construction Engineering

Providing a Machine Learning Model for Delay Prediction to Improve the Performance of Construction Projects

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
1 M.Sc. Student , Islamic Azad University, North Tehran Branch
2 Industrial Management, Faculty of Management, North Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Iran
3 Master of Industrial Engineering, Iran Science and Technology University
10.22065/jsce.2026.581967.3979
Abstract
The construction industry faces the chronic challenge of project delays, and traditional methods cannot model the complex and nonlinear interactions of factors affecting delays, while machine learning as a data-driven approach can extract hidden patterns from historical data. This study aims to develop a machine learning model for predicting the continuous amount of delay (in days) in Iranian construction projects and identifying the most influential factors; the methodology includes collecting real data from 101 completed projects, implementing seven base algorithms and two ensemble methods, and evaluating performance using MAE, RMSE, and R² metrics. The findings indicate that the Support Vector Regression with linear kernel (SVR) was selected as the final model with an R² of 0.778 and a Mean Absolute Error of 10.4 days. The five variables "material/equipment supply delay", "decision-making speed", "project manager experience", "design revisions", and "payment delay" account for over 73% of the total importance. Three managerial variables comprise more than 42% of the importance, demonstrating that managerial actions have a greater impact on delays than purely technical factors. The proposed model can predict delays of new projects with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error of 12.8%. The final conclusion is that the SVR model, while maintaining simplicity and generalizability, provides practitioners with a practical tool for estimating future delay amounts and focusing on the most effective managerial factors; this data-driven approach can serve as a foundation for developing real-time prediction systems and improving financial discipline in construction projects.
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Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 03 June 2026

  • Receive Date 18 May 2026
  • Revise Date 30 May 2026
  • Accept Date 03 June 2026