Journal of Structural and Construction Engineering

Journal of Structural and Construction Engineering

Assessment of forecasts in infrastructure projects in Iran: uncovering signs of optimism bias

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Mohammad Khosroabadi 1
Saied Yousefi 2
Farhad saeedi 3
1 MSc. student, Department of Architecture, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Architecture, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
3 Assistant Professor, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Architecture and Art, Tehran Science and Research Unit, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
10.22065/jsce.2024.457397.3417
Abstract
The basis of many decisions and policies is a logical and realistic forecast. The ability to predict enables a person to prepare their actions to avoid the damage of wrong decisions. The behavioural approach to forecasting deviations is part of the new paradigm compared to the older paradigm of project management. Optimism bias is one of the most documented cognitive biases in behavioural explanations of inaccuracies. With the aim of understanding the various aspects of Iran's infrastructure project management affected by optimism bias, the present study investigated the experiences of 18 project managers using thematic analysis method. Interviews were analysed with MAXQDA 22.6. The network of themes obtained was discussed with the assistance of a software code map tool. This tool displays themes by analysing their similarity and difference using the classical multidimensional scaling method in a Euclidean distance model. Justifiability, cost, time, risk, changes, product acceptance, relationships with stakeholders, basis of estimation, resources, and project success were the components influencing optimism bias. Among the components, time and cost were the most similar in terms of the co-occurrence of codes. The four components of time, cost, justifiability, and simultaneous changes were also affected by optimism bias from strategic misrepresentation. In order to enhance the accuracy of forecasts, it was suggested to increase attention to risk management and revise project initiation methodology as strategies to mitigate the detrimental effects of this cognitive bias.
Keywords
Cognitive Bias
Decisions
Planning fallacy
Project management
Strategic misrepresentation

Subjects

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  • Receive Date 21 May 2024
  • Revise Date 16 August 2024
  • Accept Date 14 September 2024