Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1
Master's degree in Construction Management Engineering, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, Iran
2
Assistant Professor, Technical and Engineering Faculty, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, Iran
3
Assistant Professor, Civil Engineering Dep, Payam e Noor University, Tehran, Iran.
10.22065/jsce.2024.398547.3125
Abstract
Predicting project time and cost prior to any operational activities and financial issues is crucial for project managers and planners. It plays a vital role in decision-making throughout the project. Therefore, a high level of risk and uncertainty in initial estimates can undermine the value of estimates during the project's stages, leading to a mismatch between the cost and time of project activities. Previous studies have investigated various methods to mitigate potential events (risks) and minimize their impact on project objectives. Various tools and techniques have also been employed to manage risks in projects. This proposed research aims to enhance the predictability of initial cost and time estimates for projects by considering the influence of potential events over time through the integration of probable events using the concept and idea of classification. The study focuses on examining the initial cost and time estimate for the construction project of the SE4 reservoir with a volume of 10,000 cubic meters in Tabriz. The initial estimate was conducted based on a three-factor civil project contract, taking into account the base price list and circular No. 4311 (General Contractual Conditions). The projected amount for the project was estimated to be 37,152,190,395 Iranian rials, with a duration of 730 days. Using the research method, the estimated project completion time was adjusted to 978 days, and the final project cost was predicted to be 54,001,959,748 Iranian rials. This difference indicates that probable events that may occur during the project execution have an impact on the cost and time estimates of the project. Therefore, by identifying probable events and assessing their impact on the project's time and cost using a classification approach, a significant improvement in the accuracy of cost and time estimates can be achieved.
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