Comparison of Importance Sampling Method with Other Probability Estimation Methods for Completion of Construction Projects

Articles in Press

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Ph.D candidate, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran.

2 Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran

3 Assistant Professor, Department of Architecture Engineering, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran

10.22065/jsce.2023.403524.3158

Abstract

The Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) is a stochastic network that utilizes the Beta-PERT distribution function. It was developed in the late 1950s to account for uncertainty in project management. However, due to simplifying assumptions and optimistic estimates resulting from considering the critical path alone, this method has been criticized by many researchers. New methods have been introduced that are believed to better model the actual completion time of projects. In this study, the Importance Sampling (IS) method was used for managing construction projects. Reliability methods allow for any desired distribution function to be considered for activity times, and all available paths for project completion can be taken into account using reliability systems. Five common numerical examples were investigated using importance sampling, Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), First-Order Reliability Method (FORM), and PERT. The probability of failure (defined here as the probability of not completing the project within a certain deadline) was compared. The results indicated a significant difference in the results of the PERT and first-order reliability method compared to Monte Carlo simulation and importance sampling. Additionally, the importance sampling method had the least difference (17%) among the studied methods compared to Monte Carlo simulation. Furthermore, this study shows that Monte Carlo simulation and importance sampling methods are more reliable for accurately estimating the probability of project completion compared to PERT and first-order reliability methods.

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Main Subjects

Journal of Structural and Construction Engineering

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 23 September 2023

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History

  • Receive Date: 15 July 2023
  • Revise Date: 26 August 2023
  • Accept Date: 23 September 2023

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