Analyzing the environmental needs of Lake Urmia in different conditions using the WEAP integrated water resources assessment model

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 PhD student Department of Water Science and Engineering, ,Islamic Azad University Shahr-e-qods Branch,Tehran,Iran.

2 Associate Professor, Department of Water Science and EngineeringIslamic Azad University, Shahr-e-qods Branch,,Tehran,Iran.

3 Assistant Professor Of Civil Engineering Department Of Civil Engineering, Islamic Azad University, Roudehen Branch,Roudehen,Iran.

Abstract

Lake Urmia is the largest lake in the country and the second saltiest lake in the world. The implementation of administrative and agricultural development plans affects the water resources of the Urmia Lake catchment and its ecosystem; which requires study and research. Estimating the environmental needs of the lake and taking it into account in the development plans of the watershed can lead to the protection of its ecological and hydrological functions. In this article, WEAP, a comprehensive and integrated planning tool for water resources, was used to investigate the response to meeting the environmental needs of the lake. In order to realize this goal, initial simulation was done in a period of 13 years (2007-2020), then in line with the goal of the research, a scenario was created in a period of 30 years (2021-2050). The built model was evaluated with statistical indices of regression fit (R2), Nash-Sutcliffe index (NSE), root mean square error (RMSE); whose values ​​were better estimated as 0.99, 0.78, 0.871 cubic meters per second; which show the acceptable error rate of the model. The results showed: the average monthly volume of water entering the modeling area in the hot summer months compared to other months has significantly decreased, the reason for this is the decrease in surface and underground runoff, the development of agriculture and the increase in population, the decrease in water consumption efficiency and the decrease in agricultural return flows. The development of unorganized management plans, the reduction of rainfall and the high rate of evaporation in hot seasons; which requires proper management and formulation of strategic development plans with the perspective of environmental protection and especially preservation and restoration of Lake Urmia.

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References

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History

  • Receive Date: 24 May 2022
  • Revise Date: 10 September 2022
  • Accept Date: 20 September 2022

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